08/30/2026
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🌀 TROPICAL UPDATE: Chances are increasing for Tropical Storm to briefly form in the Gulf early this week. I’m also watching the remnants of . Here's the latest and what to know:
1) INVEST 97L: This is the area in the northern Gulf we are currently invest-igating (how it gets that Invest label). Today it has been getting its act together with increasing storm coverage and what appears to be a closed surface circulation. Right now, the NHC has bumped up development odds to 50% as of 2 PM Sunday, but respectfully, I feel that is too low based on recent observations.
If trends continue, the Gulf could see a short-lived Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm along with a cone here soon. Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the system starting Monday morning. In its projected path westward, water temperatures are warmer than average and wind shear will be pretty low, which would favor organization and strengthening. What will be working against the system will be dry air and time. It’ll be pushing onshore along the SE Texas or SW Louisiana coast on Tuesday. Even if it forms, it doesn’t appear to be a big or powerful storm, but ironically, smaller storms have historically shown that they can strengthen (or weaken) quickly. Impacts may be limited, but it'll still be capable of heavy rain / pockets of flooding, gusty wind, higher tides and even a tornado threat.
2) REMNANTS OF DOLLY: Passing by Puerto Rico today and bringing scattered rain and storms to the area. They need every drop, 44% of the island is currently experiencing a Level 4 “Extreme” drought. The remnants of Dolly also brought winds gusts as high as 60 mph to the island of Saba in the Caribbean this morning.
From here, it’ll head towards the direction of the Bahamas, Florida and Eastern Gulf. Florida timing would be Thursday, Friday…and even as late as the Labor Day weekend. I would think of it as Thursday (earliest) and Labor Day (latest) depending on track, which still has a big range. Biggest question that still needs to be answered is what will it approach as? Just a rainmaker with a lot of tropical moisture helping to increase rain chances? Or will it be a tropical system? Some models do show the potential for to reform (it would still keep that name), but not all do. As a result, the current odds for development from the NHC are at 20% as of Sunday afternoon Regardless of what it becomes, Florida needs more rain!
I'll continue to keep you updated 24/7 with no hype, just the facts. Thanks everyone!
- Matt Devitt Weather
