Rob Quigley

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I live in the O&G A&D deal flow.

Unbiased technical assessments of oil and gad asstes for sophisticated investors.

02/18/2026

NAPE tends to compress a year’s worth of conversations into a few very full days for O&G deal teams. (*Sound on for this vid*).

Calendars are stacked. Ballrooms are loud. Meetings run long. And more than a few of those conversations will turn into CIMs and data rooms faster than expected.

It’s one of the rare weeks where relationships start, capital gets aligned, and real transactions take shape.

Speed matters.
Discipline matters more.

Wishing everyone a productive week — and when those conversations turn into technical underwriting work, VSO is here to help pressure test the rock, the development plan, and the economics.

Good luck out there.

02/04/2026

Everyone’s afraid of overpaying. For good reason. Winning an asset and feeling good about the price doesn’t always happen.

A big part of that comes back to Ed Capen’s Winner’s Curse: in competitive auctions, the highest bidder is statistically the most optimistic bidder — not necessarily the most accurate one.

Solid technical underwriting is foundational. It’s something we spend a lot of time on at VSO. Getting the rock, development, and performance right materially improves your odds.

But bidding well goes beyond just having a clean model.

It also requires understanding where optimism creeps into competitive processes, when it actually makes sense to lean in versus walk away, and which levers you can responsibly pull to submit a confident bid that still lets you sleep at night.

The goal isn’t to “win” at all costs.
The goal is to win with conviction — and without regert.

AssetValuation TechnicalDiligence Upstream PetroleumEngineering

01/28/2026

You can feel the tone shift when assumptions are about to get tested.

Type curves.
Spacing.
Inventory.
PDP.
Commercial.

When engineers and geologists are in the room, banker’s optimism turns into math.

In mature shale, small changes in technical assumptions can drive very large changes in value. That’s why real technical diligence still matters — not to slow deals down, but to understand what actually survives contact with the rock and development history.

That’s not friction.
That’s value protection.
Reserves

01/21/2026

You sit there, listen politely, flip through the slides—and you know there’s a moment coming when one assumption tells you everything you need to know.

That’s usually how it goes in technical presentations. Most of it sounds reasonable. The framework makes sense. Then an inventory density, spacing assumption, type curve profile, or breakeven quietly doesn’t quite jive with reality.

This is where technical diligence earns its keep. In mature shale plays, underwriting is about whether the assumptions actually survive contact with development history, depletion, interference, and the rock itself.

Banker decks are built to present a clean narrative. Buy-side diligence is about figuring out where optimism starts to creep in—and what happens to value when it does.

Check the assumptions. Or be surprised later.
TechnicalDiligence

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