04/18/2017
The Colorado State University 2017 Hurricane Season forecast is one of the first out this year.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2017, citing the potential development of El Niño as well as recent anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic as primary factors.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 11 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Of those, researchers expect four to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The team bases its forecasts on 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
So far, the 2017 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, and 2002. “The years 1957, 1965, 1976 and 2002 had slightly below-average hurricane activity, while 1972 was a well below-average season,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.
Landfall Probability
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
42 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52 percent)
24 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31 percent)
24 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30 percent)
34 percent for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42 percent)
The forecast team also tracks the likelihood of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the coastal United States, the Caribbean and Central America through its Landfall Probability website. The site provides information for all coastal states as well as 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. Landfall probabilities for regions and counties are adjusted based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season.
Contact Global Drying Equipment today. With professional-grade drying equipment, commercial dehumidifiers, air movers, air filtration, generators and other support products, you’ll be ready to meet any storm or flooding issues.
(Photo from NOAA via AP)