29/05/2026
I wouldn't be ignoring this one guys as it's not going to be nice out there. Looking at the amount of people still getting away on the roads, we hope you packed star pickets and gumboots.
I know it's crap cancelling holidays with the family. But I can't see this being pleasant 😕.
People wanting to go out wheeling in this stuff. Please be very careful
Be safe out there people
⚠️LONG WEEKEND WEATHER WARNING: THIS ONE IS THE REAL DEAL 🌧️⚠️
For the past week we've been banging on about this system and unfortunately the latest information continues to point towards a significant and potentially dangerous weather event across much of the South West Land Division.
This isn't your standard winter front that blows through, drops a few showers, rattles the patio and leaves everyone arguing over who got the most rain. This is a powerful cold front followed by a deepening low pressure system that could produce some of the most dangerous weather parts of the southwest have experienced in several years.
The Bureau is now warning that the winds expected with this system are the type of weather conditions that are generally only seen once every 3 to 5 years across the southwest of Western Australia.
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⏰ TIMING
🟡 Saturday Afternoon & Evening
The first impacts begin across the Central West with increasing showers, thunderstorms and strengthening winds.
🟠 Saturday Night
A powerful cold front sweeps southwards along the west coast, reaching Perth, the Lower West and South West before sunrise Sunday.
🔴 Sunday
The front clears but the weather doesn't improve. A rapidly deepening low pressure system approaches from the southwest, bringing another surge of dangerous weather.
⚫ Sunday Night into Monday Morning
This is currently expected to be the peak of the event with widespread damaging winds, locally destructive gusts and heavy rainfall affecting large parts of the southwest.
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💨 WIND FORECAST
The biggest concern from this event remains the wind.
As the front moves through late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, damaging to locally destructive wind gusts exceeding 125km/h are possible in showers and thunderstorms from the Central West through the Lower West and South West, including Perth.
Then during Sunday evening and Monday morning another burst of severe weather is expected as the deep low pressure system approaches the coast.
Widespread west to southwesterly winds averaging 60 to 70km/h with gusts around 110km/h are likely across many areas.
More concerning is that locally destructive gusts above 125km/h are again possible southwest of a line from Lancelin to Albany, including Perth.
These wind strengths are capable of bringing down trees, damaging homes and sheds, causing widespread power outages and making travel extremely dangerous.
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🌧️ RAINFALL & FLASH FLOODING
Rainfall totals continue to increase on many models.
Persistent showers and thunderstorms are expected from Saturday afternoon through Monday.
The Central West is currently the area of greatest concern for flash flooding, where six-hourly rainfall totals of 40 to 60mm are possible between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning.
Repeated heavy showers and thunderstorms may also cause localised flash flooding elsewhere across western districts.
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🌪️ TORNADO RISK
Another aspect of this system that needs mentioning is the possibility of isolated tornadoes.
Before anyone starts panic buying toilet paper again, tornadoes are not uncommon in Western Australia during strong cold fronts and deep low pressure systems. However, they are incredibly difficult to forecast accurately.
Unlike wind and rainfall warnings, we cannot pinpoint days in advance exactly where a tornado may occur.
At this stage, the area most favourable for isolated tornado development appears to be between Lancelin and Augusta from late Saturday through Monday.
⚠️ This does NOT mean tornadoes are expected everywhere within that region.
It simply means atmospheric conditions may become favourable for brief tornadoes to develop within stronger thunderstorms, squall lines or rotating showers embedded within the front and low pressure system.
The tornado risk remains highly localised and impossible to accurately pinpoint ahead of time, but it is another reason this system deserves everyone's attention.
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🌊 COASTAL IMPACTS
The combination of severe winds, dangerous swell and rough seas will make coastal conditions extremely hazardous.
If your long weekend plans involve boating, offshore fishing, camping near exposed beaches or standing on coastal rocks trying to film giant waves for social media, we'd strongly suggest finding something else to do.
This is not a weekend to test your luck against the Southern Ocean.
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🏕️ CAMPERS & TRAVELLERS
If you're planning to head south for the long weekend, particularly camping, caravaning or staying in exposed coastal areas, now would be a very good time to reconsider those plans.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly from Saturday afternoon and remain dangerous through much of Sunday and into Monday morning.
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📍 WHO SHOULD PAY ATTENTION?
✅ Perth Metro
✅ Central West
✅ Lower West
✅ South West
✅ Great Southern
✅ Wheatbelt
✅ Southern Goldfields
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⚠️ PWL BOTTOM LINE
This is shaping up to be one of the most significant weather events we've seen in quite some time.
Potential impacts include:
💨 Widespread damaging winds
💥 Localised destructive wind gusts above 125km/h
🌧️ Heavy rainfall
🚨 Flash flooding
🔌 Power outages
🌊 Dangerous coastal conditions
🌳 Fallen trees and debris
🌪️ Isolated tornadoes
Please spend the next couple of days securing loose outdoor items, checking emergency kits, charging phones and power banks, and keeping up to date with official warnings.
We've been talking about this system for over a week now.
You've had plenty of notice.
Now is the time to prepare, not panic.
Steve & The PWL Team
Humans are remarkable. Give them seven days notice of destructive winds and they'll still wait until Sunday night to wonder if the trampoline should have been tied down. Don't be that bloke. 🌪️🍻
